BUTTERFLY EFFECT AND PEOPLE - SEEKING ORDER

We people tend to order everything. We are wired to see patterns and tend to describe them in structural language or mathematics. (The language of patterns)

We people tend to follow these rules in life:

* Better measure means better prediction means better control.
* Small causes have small consequences.
* More and better order (regularity) is healthier.

To understand the dynamics of large systems we need to know all the factors that play a role in it and we can make predictions.

CHAOS EVERYWHERE: THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT

However, the above is not true. When we began to study weather and economics, it was impossible to find direct patterns. Scientist began to create computer simulations and began to see chaos but also underlying order in the chaos. The weather and stock market could not be predicted by looking at the larger picture. Even a small butterfly could cause a storm…

A new theory was born in the form of the chaos theory. It described that many processes are run by unpredictable factors and are determent by the initial conditions. The initial conditions set a dynamic system in motion and many small influences (butterflies) create very noticeable large-scale consequence (like storms) in the big system. (Like weather)

SOCIAL SYSTEMS

However, this is also true for social systems! One person can have a huge effect overall organization. Organizations are thus also controlled by chaos theory systems. We people can also work as butterflies and cause huge effects. Look into our history and notice some legendary people that were some unnoticeable persons at first. By coincidence, they could have huge effect on our whole society and history. Their actions cannot be recreated to form the same legendary figure. It is all about timing and the initial conditions.

Nevertheless, why do we try to look deterministic to our social systems? A system that is ruled by a rigid top down structure cannot easily adapt for weather changes. By top down determination, you dumb down all the factors that are really running the social process. It can be run by procedures but you are really ignoring many factors that control a social system. Do not kill butterflies!

RUN BY CHAOS

The process should determine the organization. Chaos should be allowed. Even in chaos there seems to be order. It is true that we need to find the right initial conditions. But once in motion it will adapt much faster by human passion and drive.

Don’t dumb down the process into easy schematic concepts! You will kill a lot of potential. We should favor adaptive organizations and design. The chaos theory could deliver some key insights in this new age.